Ecommerce Subscription Product Profit Calculator
Calculate recurring order profit, monthly subscriber profit, CAC payback, lifetime profit, and break-even acquisition cost.
Subscription order economics
Monthly subscriber economics
Acquisition and lifetime economics
See whether a subscription product stays profitable beyond the first order
Use this calculator to connect recurring order economics with customer acquisition cost and expected subscriber lifetime.
A subscription can look attractive because revenue repeats, but recurring product, fulfillment, shipping, and payment costs repeat as well.
The calculator first measures profit on each subscription order, then converts that into monthly profit per subscriber and lifetime economics.
Expected subscription lifetime is an assumption. Use observed retention or cancellation data whenever possible instead of relying only on a forecast.
How subscription product profit is calculated
The calculator builds profitability from the recurring order level up to customer lifetime economics.
Calculate profit per subscription order
Product cost, fulfillment, packaging, shipping, selling fees, and other variable costs are subtracted from the recurring subscription charge.
Convert order economics to monthly economics
Profit per order is multiplied by the average number of subscription orders per subscriber each month.
Measure CAC payback
Customer acquisition cost is divided by monthly profit per subscriber to estimate how many months are required to recover acquisition spend.
Estimate lifetime profit and break-even CAC
Monthly subscriber profit is multiplied by expected paid lifetime to estimate lifetime contribution before and after acquisition cost.
Example subscription product calculation
Suppose a monthly subscription box has these economics:
Variable cost per subscription order is $27.00, leaving $13.00 of profit per order and a 32.5% margin. With one order per month, monthly profit per subscriber is $13.00. A $45 CAC is recovered in about 3.46 months. Over an 8-month paid lifetime, lifetime profit before CAC is $104.00 and lifetime profit after CAC is $59.00. Break-even CAC is $104.00.
What each result means
The key question is not only whether the recurring order is profitable, but whether enough recurring profit is generated before the customer cancels.
Profit per subscription order
The amount left from one recurring charge after variable costs tied to that order.
Monthly profit per subscriber
The average profit generated by one active subscriber each month based on billing or shipment frequency.
CAC payback period
The estimated number of months required for subscription profit to recover customer acquisition cost.
Break-even CAC
The maximum acquisition cost that could be recovered over the expected paid subscription lifetime before lifetime profit after CAC reaches zero.
Lifetime profit after CAC
Estimated recurring profit over the expected paid lifetime after subtracting customer acquisition cost.
Subscription product profitability questions
Common questions about recurring ecommerce order economics and acquisition payback.
How is this different from a customer lifetime value calculator?
This calculator starts with the economics of a specific recurring subscription order and shows profit, CAC payback, and lifetime profit. A customer lifetime value calculator is broader and can be used for non-subscription purchase behavior as well.
What should I enter for subscription orders per month?
Use 1 for monthly billing, 0.5 for one order every two months, about 2.17 for every two weeks, or another frequency that reflects the average recurring schedule.
Should CAC be included in profit per order?
No. CAC is separated so you can see recurring order profitability first and then measure how long those profits take to recover acquisition spend.
What if CAC payback is longer than expected subscription lifetime?
Under those assumptions, the average subscriber would cancel before generating enough recurring profit to recover acquisition cost.
Should discounts on the first subscription order be included?
If the first order has materially different pricing or costs, evaluate that separately or adjust CAC and first-order economics. This calculator assumes the recurring subscription order uses the price entered.